Definition:

The spectrum of ideas on public policy and social issues considered acceptable by the general public at a given time. [REF]

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Deconstruction:

This concept is the creation of two Josephs at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a libertarian think tank in Michigan.  When Mr. Overton died in a plane crash accident in 2003, his colleague, Mr. Lehman, formally published the methodology as a tribute.  

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Overton originally applied this framework to determining the political viability of an idea, given public opinion at the time, though the approach can be broadened beyond politics, to any topical societal subject.

There are perpetually issues on which the communal consensus is divided, typically with a generally even distribution around an accepted centrist norm, with extremist, radical, outliers on the far left, and far right, tails. The acceptance of various public policy ideas can shift, sometimes gradually, and sometimes quickly.  This theorem proposes it’s the responsibility of politicians to monitor the vibe of their citizens, and propose legislation accordingly.  

Rather than focusing on the current polarized political, and social, landscape in the United States, it’s more relevant, and insightful, to tackle the Overton window concept through a historical lens.  

An interesting application of the Overton window is not around status quo, entrenched topics, but rather opinions which have shifted over time.  Some rapid and event driven, others slow and relentless.

The famous quote from Vladimir Lenin, written while waiting for the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, nicely captures both the patience and immediacy factors that can drive changes in social perception.

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Let’s evaluate an occurrence, and subsequent policy reaction, that nearly every American was influenced by, even if they weren’t born at the time.  This example represents a very rapid shift in the Overton window, with an outlier event causing a swift change in public opinion.

December 7th, 1941:

The U.S. Naval Base at Pearl Harbor, located in the United States territory of Hawaii, was attacked by the Japanese.

At the beginning of World War II, most Americans were content to sit back, using the isolated safety offered by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as a buffer from the violent unrest globally.

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United States manufacturing was booming, providing various accessories for the war, without playing an active role. After the losses sustained in World War I, and the subsequent Great Depression, citizens were content with a neutral, isolationist policy with regards to foreign affairs.  However, that countrywide sentiment all changed based due to a single event, on a single day.  The bombing of Pearl Harbor.

Within hours, politicians, and the American public, changed their tune.  President F.D.R. dubbed the incident “a day that will live in infamy”, and on December 8th, the U.S. Government declared war on Japan.  Three days later, the Axis and Allied powers had aligned in against each other in a bloody conflict that would take 4 more years to play out.

A January 1940 poll recorded 90% of Americans were against getting involved in the primarily European altercation at the time.  Less than 2 years later, under much different global circumstances, Congress voted nearly unanimously to declare war.  Public sentiment, and thus the actions policymakers are able to take without repercussions from their electorate, can shift quickly.

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Considering the over 2,400 military and civilian casualties at the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it’s not surprising it was hard to find an American citizen who wasn’t pro-war by the end of 1941. 

However, wars can be just as polarizing as they are uniting.  Two decades later, the Vietnam War, pitting anti-Imperialism liberals against anti-Communism conservatives, clearly stretched the Overton window, as opposed to uniting and focusing Americans around a single cause.

While snap adjustments in sentiment can occur, most societal change is glacial in pace.  In fact, sometimes, few citizens realize progress is being made until after the fact.  Consider the scenario that led up to the key date, and government activity, listed below.

June 26th, 2015:

The Obergefell vs. Hodges ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court makes same-sex marriages legal in all 50 states.

The topic of same-sex marriage languished as a back burner political item throughout the 1980’s, but started to become a more relevant topic for voters in the early 1990’s.  The Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), voted into law by the 104th Congress in 1996, essentially gave individual states the right to refuse such unions as legal contracts.  

Consequently, numerous states passed various restrictive measures, and by 2007, 43 states had bans on same-sex marriage in the form of a constitutional amendment, or government statue. 

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However, social movements for LGBT rights brought this topic to the forefront of social consciousness, creating a deep divide in the country.  Via protests, public outcry, and informational campaigns, public perception slowly shifted.  Politicians, sensing this ground swell of support, a major shift in the Overton window, adjusted their policies accordingly.

Just 7 years later, in 2014, 35 states had switched their legislation to legalize same-sex marriage.  This is a testament to how shifting societal awareness can drive change at the local and state level, which can often move more swiftly than the federal government. 

According to Gallup polling, over the 20-year span from 1996 to 2016, the percentage of Americans who thought same-sex marriage should be legally recognized shifted from 27% to 61%.  That change, a substantial doubling in acceptance to a clear majority, is a perfect demonstration how public opinion can drift significantly over time.  

The Obergefell vs. Hodges ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court made the last provisions of DOMA unconstitutional, paving the way for unified legal same-sex marriage nationwide.  Now, a topic that was taboo and contested just a quarter century ago, is now broadly accepted, and part of everyday life.  

It’s important to note that the Overton window represents a snapshot in time.  Like a seesaw, societal norms, and thus the motivations of politicians, who are always striving to get reelected, change.  The window analogy is quite apt, as it can easily widen or narrow, thereby dictating the breadth of ideas which pass though without resistance.

It important to note that the Overton window also applies to a specific demographic swath of people.  The United Kingdom declared war on Germany in September 1939, over two years before the Americans, as the contentious battle was at their doorstep.  Also, the U.K. Parliament approved same sex marriage in July 2013, again two years ahead of their American counterparts across the pond.    

If two countries with fairly similar language, values, and heritage can have different thoughts on a subject, then clearly cultures in Asia, Africa, or the Middle East will possess drastically different beliefs.  When examining the motivations of humans, it’s important to put yourself in their shoes to truly understand their perspective.

A good example of this phenomenon is looking at the history of the global women’s suffrage movement.  The date which some critical counties granted women the right to vote is as follows: 1893 = New Zealand, 1915 = Denmark, 1920 = United States, 1945 = Japan, 1980 = Iraq, 2015 = Saudi Arabia.  

As expected, this list generally goes in chronological order based on the tolerant open-mindedness of the general population.  Similar observations can be made in terms of women occupying key political roles.  Since Indira Ghandi was elected Prime Minister of India in 1966, the first female to become leader of a major nation, the trend has grown, with women currently holding the top post in over 20 countries worldwide in 2020.   

The range of acceptance can also shift, at times more liberal, at times most conservative.  No one knows where the next decades of American social consciousness is headed.  But one thing is for sure.  Changing views are inevitable, some slow and some fast, but always dynamic.

Interestingly, the current polarized political landscape worldwide seems to be widening the Overton window in many regions, stretching the acceptable range of policies on both extremes at the same time.  This is a phenomenon that even Mr. Overton didn’t foresee, but it will be fascinating to see how his theory plays out moving forward.

Details:​

• Summary of Joseph Overton’s career at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. [REF]

• Detailed explanation of the Overton window with several examples. [REF]

• List of interesting quotes from Vladimir Lenin. [REF]

• Details on the Pearl Harbor attack, which initiated the United States entry into World War II. [REF]

• Timeline of key events related to same sex marriage in the United States. [REF]

• History of the global women’s suffrage movement. [REF]